Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina (and my fairly accurate predictions)

By Michael J.W. Stickings

These were the three states I was focusing on going into the election, assuming that Obama would win the other battleground states (including Ohio and Pennsylvania), and they were the three I was paying the most attention to on election night (along with Florida and Virginia).

Here's an update:

Indiana: Called for Obama, who is up 50-49 with 99 percent reporting. That's a spread of just over 26,000 votes in a state with over 2.7 million votes cast.

Missouri: Still undecided, 50-49 for McCain with 100 percent reporting. But 50-49 doesn't quite capture it. With almost 2.9 million votes cast, McCain is up by less than 6,000 votes.

North Carolina: Still undecided, 50-49 for Obama with 100 percent reporting. Again, though, 50-49 doesn't quite capture how close it is. With over 4.2 million votes cast, Obama is up by just over 14,000 votes.

Wow.

Now, with just Missouri and North Carolina left, it's currently 349-163 for Obama. Let's look back at my pre-election prediction: 375-163 for Obama. So far, if I may toot my own horn for a moment, I've gotten it all right. But I did give both Missouri and North Carolina to Obama. If the current results hold, he'll win the latter but not the former. Which will mean that I got everything right except... Missouri.

(Shaking my fists.) Missouri! Dammit.

As for the national popular vote, I predicted (in an e-mail to friends -- you'll have to trust me on this) Obama by seven points, 53-46.

Oh, what's that? It's currently 53-46 for Obama. Huh. Interesting.

Where I may have gotten it wrong was with the Senate, where I predicted the Democrats would end up with 59 seats post-election. It's currently 56-40. For more on the four undecided races, see what I wrote yesterday. It's possible that the Democrats will win three of the four, but unlikely. At most, I think, they'll win two: Oregon and Alaska. In fact, it looks like they'll win Oregon, now that the votes are coming in from Portland and Merkley has overtaken Smith.

(I also predicted the Democrats would pick up 28 seats in the House. So far, with eight races still undecided, they've only picked up 18. It seems I underestimated both the power of incumbency and Obama's influence down-ballot.)

Alright, enough horn-tooting. I'm exhausted, burnt out, and I need to get some rest tonight. I have a lot more to say, but it'll have to wait.

But keep checking back with us. As always, we'll have a lot more for you.