Thursday, September 08, 2011

American Gridiron: Previewing the 2011-12 NFL season

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Today is one of the greatest days of the year. Why? Because it's the start of NFL's regular season, the day we look forward to all year. Sure, being an NFL fan is a year-round thing, what with the draft and off-season stuff, but there's nothing quite like the excitement this time of year brings. Summer is drawing to a close, the weather is getting decidedly more autumnal, as it suddenly has in Toronto the past few days, the kids go back to school -- and Sundays are soon to be all about football again. And for those of us who play fantasy football, well, that just adds to the excitement.

As I've mentioned previously, we're going to be doing a bit more sports blogging here at The Reaction, including with an international sports reporter who writes about that other game of football, specifically of the English variety. That means baseball, that means hockey, and, yes, above all else, that means football. (And, no, not the CFL, which actually can be quite entertaining, but the NFL.)

Starting on Sunday, when Week 1 gets underway in earnest, after tonight's prime-time opener between the Packers and Saints, we'll be doing weekly previews and picks. By "we" I mean me, Richard Barry, and our good friend Comfortable Kid (not his real name). We'll offer our picks for each game of the week, provide some commentary/analysis, maybe also look back at the previous week, and keep track of how we're doing over the course of the season.

Can you find this elsewhere? Of course. A lot of people do NFL picks, including a lot of supposed experts. All I can say is that we know our football here, both real and fantasy, and can offer some interesting insight. Basically, though, it's just for fun -- our own fun but hopefully yours as well. Our primary focus will continue to be politics, no worries there, and that will only get more intense as go deeper and deeper into the 2012 campaign. We will write about the national scene, and particularly the Republican hopefuls (who provide a seemingly endless amount of material, most of it thoroughly outrageous), but we'll also delve into state races, balancing partisan commentary with careful analysis both of the issues and of the races themselves. But that also means we need a break from time to time, and our football blogging will provide just that.

How we do this will evolve over the course of the season, but, again, we'll aim not just to provide our picks but to back them up with thoughtful commentary. And we encourage you to participate as well, should you feel so inclined, by adding your comments.

Before we get to our Week 1 picks, though, which we'll post Sunday morning, let's do a brief preview of the upcoming season. Read on for our division winner, wild card, and Super Bowl picks, as well as our choices for offensive and defensive MVP, with a short preview from each of us.

Oh, before I forget, here are our picks for tonight: 

-- MJWS: Green Bay 30, New Orleans 24
-- RKB: New Orleans 24, Green Bay 17
-- The Kid: Green Bay 28, New Orleans 21 

Okay... let's do this!

We hope you enjoy.

Michael Stickings (Stickings' Pickings)

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: San Diego
Wild cards: N.Y. Jets, Baltimore 

This looks awfully similar to Richard's and the Kid's picks, and I'm tempted, just for the hell of it, to go the other way. Jets in the East, Ravens in the North, not the Colts but the Titans in the South, and... oh, well, it really has to be the Chargers in the awful West. Consider these my bizarro picks. Actually, bizarro might mean picking the Browns to win the North and the Chiefs to prove last season wasn't a fluke by winning the West over an obviously superior (if not necessarily better coached) Chargers team, but I can't go quite that far.

I'm also tempted to reverse jinx the Ravens by picking them to get by my beloved Steelers at long last. The game on Sunday should give us a sense of where that intense rivalry is headed. I love the Steelers' offence this year, particularly the fantastic group of WRs (Ward, Wallace, Sanders, Brown, Cotchery) they've assembled for Big Ben and some depth at RB with Isaac Redman backing up an overworked but in-his-prime Rashard Mendenhall. This could turn out to be the most potent offence they've ever had. Maybe not superior to those great teams of the '70s, but the game was different back then, the offences hardly as liberated as they are in today's pass-happy NFL (and with rules limiting what defensive players can do). The question marks are all along the O-line, but it's actually not as bad as its reputation. It provides superior run protection and usually gives Ben enough time to make things happen, often by scrambling out of the pocket and making something out of seemingly nothing. Having Heath Miller, one of the best all-around TEs in the game, to help with the blocking helps a great deal.

The Steelers' much-heralded D is still awesome, particularly up front. The line is old, but there's talented youth (2009 first-rounder Ziggy Hood, 2011 first-rounder Cameron Heyward) ready to step up. The linebacking corps is, in typical Steelers fashion, ridiculously good. All-pro James Harrison's health is a concern, but this is the year Lawrence Timmons could become a superstar, and he and James Farrior, the D's veteran leader, are a force in the middle. LaMarr Woodley, opposite Harrison on the outside, was signed in the off-season to a huge contract but has the talent to continue to dominate. Despite the presence of the otherworldly Troy Polamalu (my favourite player) at safety (who hopefully will be fully healthy this year), the secondary isn't great, particularly at CB, and that's where they can be beaten, as the Packers showed in the Super Bowl. As long as an opposing O-line provides adequate protection, a good QB (and more so a great one like Aaron Rodgers) can spread the field and pick the secondary apart. Defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau is a god, but even he may not be able to make up for this weakness.

Sorry, I love the Steelers. What was I saying about the Ravens?

If Joe Flacco emerges as something more than just a competent QB, if Ray Rice emerges as truly one of the most dynamic RBs in the game, if Anquan Boldin and newly-acquired Lee Evans can prove to be elite threats at WR, and if the defence can patch up its holes in the secondary in with respect to its pass-rushing, this may just be the Ravens' year. There are a lot of ifs, more than with the Steelers, but they're a talented team with a great deal of upside. 

Possible surprise teams: Tennessee (could even win the South), Cleveland (likely won't finish any higher than third in the North, but will makes strides to respectability), Denver (if they don't succumb to Tebow fever and new coach John Fox gets the D in order). 

Likely regression teams: Kansas City (tough schedule, not buying a Cassel-led offence), Indianapolis (without Peyton Manning, just how good are they?), the Jets (maybe Sanchez isn't that good, maybe Plaxico is a dud, and I just hate them).

NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: St. Louis
Wild cards: Atlanta, Dallas 

Philadelphia was the sexy team here, what with Michael Vick taking his game to a new level last year and with super-CB Nnamdi Asomugha in the fold, but I think Green Bay is the team to beat. The Packers might just be better than they were last year (when, lest we forget, they barely squeaked into the playoffs with an ugly 10-3 win over the Bears in Week 17). With TE Jermichael Finley back from injury, with a load of other weapons to choose from, and with a solid O-line, Rodgers should be able to up his game even further. This is the year, I think, the Manning-Brady hold on top of the QB field is broken. It could be Philip Rivers of the Chargers, it could be Drew Brees of the Saints, the latter of whom has come close (and was simply amazing in 2008-09), but I suspect we'll end the 2011 season recognizing Rodgers as the best QB in the game.

Behind the elite three of Philly, Green Bay, and New Orleans, there are a bunch of teams that are close but not close enough, specifically Dallas (potentially great offence, definitely not great defence), Atlanta (maybe the next "greatest show on turf" with QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White, but lacks depth at RB, must rely on a rookie WR (Julio Jones) oppose White, and has serious question marks on D), Tampa Bay (very likely to take a big step back this year even with a bright future), and Detroit (the sexy "sleeper" pick, but now too sexy for their own good -- let them prove it before we celebrate how good they supposedly are).

As for the West... so I really have to pick a winner of that lousy division? It could be San Francisco with a new coach, it could be Arizona with a new QB (Kevin Kolb), but it will likely be St. Louis, with a budding star in QB Sam Bradford now being coached by new offensive coordinator (and ex-Broncos failure) Josh McDaniels. 

Possible surprise teams: St. Louis (Bradford, McDaniels, growth on both sides of the ball, weak division), Arizona (some Kolb-to-Fitzgerald magic, good coaching, weak division), San Francisco (not having Mike Singletary as coach can only be good, weak division), Detroit (wouldn't really be a surprise given all the hype, and I don't think they'll be that good, but you never know). 

Likely regression teams: Tampa Bay (Freeman is good but overrated, not nearly enough weapons on offence, tough division), Chicago (still hasn't sorted out WR mess, questionable secondary, just got lucky last year), Seattle (won horrible division at 7-9, won't come close even to mediocrity this year), Atlanta (will still be very good, but not 13-3), maybe the Giants (injuries, Eli Manning and his INTs, tough division). 

AFC winner: New England
NFC winner: Green Bay

Super Bowl winner: Green Bay 

This could actually be the year we see a Super Bowl repeat: Packers over Steelers, again. Given that there hasn't been much time for teams to come together, what with the extended lockout, the key word this year will be consistency, with the teams with solid structures and rosters having an advantage over those making major changes in the off-season.

But I have to go with New England in the AFC, also a team of perennial consistency under Bill Belichick. I think Brady's got a lot left in the tank and was embarrassed by last season's meltdown in the playoffs. He's got that competitive, win-or-nothing spirit you want in a franchise QB, and though he lacks major weapons at WR and especially RB, he'll somehow make it happen, while the D continues to develop into one of the best in the league, back where it usually is. San Diego is another option, but, really, Norv Turner? They've got a ton of firepower, and Rivers is elite, and the new kickoff rules (leading to many more touchbacks) will help a team with historically horrendous special teams play last year, but I'm not convinced the defence can keep up. The Jets? Ugh. Maybe. I hate the Jets, almost as much as I hate the Cowboys. (I respect the Patriots and Ravens, even if I root against them.) But, sure, if Sanchez grows up a bit. They've certainly got the personnel and coaching to go all the way.

In the NFC, Philly or New Orleans would be a fine pick, but I see the Packers as slightly better than both, mainly because I'm not all-in on Vick this year (he's one big hit away from Vince Young taking over for the season, and defences have learned how to play him and if not shut him down at least contain him) and because I'm not sure the Saints' great depth on offence adds up to much more than the sum of its parts, nor that their opportunistic defence can keep down the top offences in the conference (Green Bay and Philly, as well as Dallas and Atlanta). What's more, the Packers should be able to run away with a fairly easy division, one in which Minnesota won't be good (even with top RB Adrian Peterson), Chicago will regress severely, and Detroit won't live up to the crazy hype.) If they can stay healthy, look out. 

Offensive MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Defensive MVP: Clay Matthews 

It's all Green Bay here. Brady or Rivers could challenge Rodgers, and picking a defensive MVP is tough, as it's not always the best who get recognized (for example, shutdown corners like Asomugha, run-stopping linemen) but those who make the most visible impact (sacks, INTs, which can fluctuate a great deal from year to year even for the best players, depending on opportunity, luck, schemes, etc.), but these two, simply, are two of the very best. Matthews lost out to Polamalu last year. This will be his year.

Richard Barry (Barry's Tea Leaves)

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: San Diego
Wild cards: New York Jets, Baltimore


AFC winner: Pittsburgh

New England, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. Not going to pick against any of these teams. If Manning were healthy, I wouldn't go against the Colts either, but since we don't know what's going to happen there, I say the Texans win the division by a hair. Much as it pains me, and much as I wonder if Mark Sanchez is ready to finish the job, I'll pick the Jets as one of the Wild Card teams and go with Baltimore as the other. The Ravens could win the division with Pittsburgh taking the wild card, but I doubt it.

NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona
Wild cards: New York Giants, Atlanta


NFC winner: Philadelphia 

As for Arizona, I think the Kolb-to-Fitzgerald combo may be enough to get them there. Hell, in that division it won't take much of a comparative advantage to steal the thing. I don't think Philly is going to go 14-2, but maybe 11-5 if Michael Vick can stay healthy, which is a big if. I also think the league will start to figure him out, but not enough to keep them from winning the division and maybe getting to the Super Bowl. Green Bay, of course, at least for their division. New Orleans is going to come back big this year after embarrassing themselves with that playoff loss to Seattle. They're a good team and they are going to be some pissed this year.

Disclaimer on the Giants: I'm a big fan, but I still think that they'll make the playoffs if Eli doesn't throw 25 INTs and they can otherwise hold on to the ball. There's a lot of talent there on both sides of the ball, though the raft of pre-season injuries does worry. If the G-Men don't make the playoffs, Coughlin is gone. As for Dallas, not so much. Romo doesn't do it for me. The Falcons will get in as a wild card. They were 13-3 last year. Matt Ryan had only nine picks in 2010. Somebody should give Eli Manning Ryan's phone number. They should talk. One team not on my list is Detroit. They're obviously ready to start to play with the big kids, but they're not going to win anything this year.

Super Bowl winner: Pittsburgh 

If Vick stays healthy, this could be the year. They may do it ugly, or at the very least wildly, but this really could happen.  And then just because it would be so damned much fun to have an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl, and so plausible, that's my pick. Sadly, I will say that Philadelphia will get to the big game only to lose it to Roethlisberger and Company. And it will just hurt the "Iggles" so much to come so close, but I won't care. Did I mention I was a Giants fan? 

Offensive MVP: Michael Vick
Defensive MVP: Troy Polamalu

Comfortable Kid

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: San Diego
Wild cards: Baltimore, New York Jets


NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: St. Louis
Wild Card: Detroit, Philadelphia


AFC winner: San Diego
NFC winner: Green Bay 

Super Bowl winner: Green Bay 

Offensive MVP: Philip Rivers
Defensive MVP: Lawrence Timmons 

Thank you for this opportunity, gentleman. Just for fun, I would like to offer some quick and crude, "ticker-esque" prophesies:

With Peyton Manning possibly missing the majority of the season, Houston wins the AFC South under Matt Schaub's leadership and a vastly improved defence, but loses in the AFC Championship game to the now well-rounded San Diego Chargers.

Detroit squeezes into a wild card spot but loses badly to Philadelphia on Wild Card weekend.

Pittsburgh makes the post-season, but age and injury leave its defense vulnerable and ultimately too weak to contend for its seventh championship.

Despite being surrounded by offensive weapons and defensive prowess, New York Jets' QB Mark Sanchez solidifies his reputation as an expensive "game manager" after failing to even reach the AFC Championship.

The Green Bay Packers, despite a mediocre ground attack, protect against the injury bug and repeat as Super Bowl champions.

(Photos: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Troy Polamalu, Andre Johnson)

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